Conflict & Cohesion 1

Experiments to Improve Intergroup Relations

Jeremy Springman

University of Pennsylvania

Global Development: Intermediate Topics in Politics, Policy, and Data

PSCI 3200 - Spring 2024

Logistics

Assignments

Agenda


  1. Review of last 3 classes
  2. Final Project Assignment
  3. Conflict and Cohesion

Final Project Discussion

Final Project

  • Data analysis project with data of your choosing
    • Formulate a research question
    • Find data that can help you answer that question
    • Apply the tools and methods from this course
    • Write-up analysis
  • Produce a webpage to present your results for public consumption

Write-up

  1. Introduction to research question and data
  2. Discussion of research design, assumptions, and threats to inference
  3. Visualization describing your data
  4. Presentation of results from a regression model and discussion of implications for research question
  5. Discussion of policy implications

Public Datasets

Dataset of datasets

Other types of data

  • Election returns (various compilations, government websites)
  • Replication data (Dataverse, journal websites)
  • Public opinion (various ‘barometer’ surveys)

My Datasets

  • Machine Learning for Peace
  • Cambodian NGOs (n \(\approx\) 100)
    • Convenience sample
    • Panel survey, financial data, networks, open-ended responses
  • Ethiopian University Students (n \(\approx\) 900)
    • Representative sample
    • Panel survey, networks, open-ended responses
  • Ghanaian Radio Stations (n \(\approx\) 400)
    • Convenience sample

Assignment 1

March 12

  • Send me a quarto html file that:
    • Briefly describes your research question
    • Proposes a dataset and measures that will help you answer it

Conflict Overview

Causes of Conflict

The puzzle of conflict

  • Fighting is always more costly than a negotiated settlement
  • Bargains can’t always be reached
    • Uncertainty
    • Commitment problems
  • Some actors benefit from conflict
    • These actors will often mobilize on intergroup cleavages

Paluck et al. (2021)

Types of interventions

Applied Interventions

  • Anti-bias, multicultural, and moral education
  • Diversity Training

Types of interventions

Research Interventions

  • Cognitive and emotional training
  • Value consistency and self-worth
  • Peer influence, discussion, and dialogue
  • Social categorization
  • Entertainment
  • Contact

Problems with existing research


  • Treatment intensity
    • Focus on light-touch interventions
  • Measurement duration
  • Realism and sample selection
  • Publication bias
    • Small samples yield bigger effects

Problems with existing research

Problems with existing research

Land-mark Studies

  • Social contact
    • Sports in Iraq and India
  • Interpersonal conversations
    • Conversations in USA
  • Workplace diversity training
    • Global corporate environment
  • Normative interventions
    • Social sanctioning on Twitter

Mousa (2020)

Why Study Cohesion?


What is social cohesion?

  • Patterns of cooperation among individuals from different social groups who live and work in close proximity

Why Study Cohesion?


Why do we want to increase cohesion?

  • Better governance
    • Adherence to norms and laws
  • Sustainable peace
    • Identity as a cleavage
    • Cooperation on peace agreements

Building social cohesion

What is the theory?

  • Social contact promots cohesion
    • Cooperation on shared goal
    • Social equality
    • Socially endorsed

What is the context?

  • Post-war Iraq
  • Rigid inter-ethnic cleavages

Intervention

What is the intervention?

  • Randomly assigning Christian teams to have three muslim players

What is the design?

  • Block randomization on baseline perceived commonality

Outcomes

Generalizability

  • On-the-field
  • Off-the-field

Domain

  • Behavioral
  • Attitudinal

Outcomes

Findings

Main findings

  • Improved behavior towards Muslim teammates
  • No improvement in generalizable behavior
  • No improvements in attitudes toward Muslims

Exploratory findings

  • Strong effects among successful teams
  • Improved generalizable behaviors across the league
  • Improved generalizable attitudes of exposed residents

Policy Implications


  • Contact works, but in a narrow way
    • We can improve people’s treatment of those they have contact with, but it doesn’t generalize
    • This necessarily limits the potential impact
  • We can reduce discrimination without attitude change
    • Creating personal ties can facilitate trade, negotiation, etc.

Grady et al. (2023)

How contact can promote societal change

Theory

  • Contact can create societal change through social diffusion

Mechanisms for diffusion

  • Changing norms
  • Knowledge of positive contact

Intervention

Grant program for conflict-affected villages

  • Mixed-group committees deciding on resource allocation
  • Mediation training
  • Forums to discuss conflict
  • Publicly visible cooperation

Design

  • Village-level random assignment

Outcomes

  • Contact
    • Self-reported contact
    • Contact willingness experiment
    • Observed behavior
  • Perceptions of security
  • Attitudes
    • Endorsement experiment
    • Self-reported attitudes
  • Cooperative behavioral game

Findings

Findings

Findings

Alternative Explanations


  • Placebo outcomes
  • Bundled treatment

Policy Implications

  • Contact interventions can have wider societal change and reduce the barriers to peace between conflicting groups
  • For social diffusion, contact must be highly public

jrspringman.github.io/psci3200-globaldev/