Agenda

1. Finishing Foreign Aid (Soft Power)
2. Climate change overview

Soft Power

Does aid win hearts and minds (soft power)?

• Aid improves health and education outcomes
• Recipients seem to know who gives aid
• Aid often comes with conditionality and corruption
• Andrabi and Das (2017) use spatial data to show that disaster relief in Pakistan improved trust in US and Europe

Soft Power

Soft Power

Soft Power

Kenya: Soft Power

Kenya: Soft Power

Kenya: Soft Power

Geopolitics and Foreign Aid

• US Foreign Aid in 2023: $60b
  • USAID $44b; DoS $14b; DoT and DoA $2.5b
• Annual aid 2013-2018
  • China: $7b
  • USA: $44.7b
• Most Chinese aid is loans (BRI)

Geopolitics and Foreign Aid

Geopolitics and Foreign Aid

March earthquake in Myanmar

• US pledged $9m
  • Not clear that there’s anyone left to do this work
  • US 3-person team was fired while in-country
  • DART teams are layed-off; transportation contracts were killed
• China pledged $137m
  • They had teams working within 48 hours
• 17 other countries involved in response

Filling the Gap

• De-funded human rights NGOs have been approached by Chines donors
• China has replaced USAID programs in Cambodia, Nepal, and Mongolia
• China and Russia have been buying-up and establishing foreign media outlets
• US is shutting down Voice of America (est. 1942)

Kenya: Soft Power

This investment is seen by policy analysts as a direct response by the [Chinese/United States] government to the [United States/Chinese] government’s announcement of similar projects in Kenya. Observers say this is part of a broader rivalry between the two great powers to gain international influence, with [China/the United States] aiming to outpace the [United States/Chinese] and develop strategic footholds across Africa. Kenya’s position as a regional hub makes it a key battleground in this global competition, as the United States and China race to secure political and economic influence in the region.

Kenya: Soft Power

Climate Change

Are we doomed?

Where We Stand

Targets and Trajectories

Wind and Solar

Solar Panels

Electricity

Batteries

Batteries

Electric Vehicles

Cross-National Variation

China’s Growth

Decoupling

Divergence

Climate Adaptation

Disproportionate vulnerability for developing countries

Three literatures

• Quantifying vulnerabilities
• Measuring adaptation
• Spatial linkages

Climate Adaptation

Research Methods

Research Methods

Recent developments

Climate Adaptation

Climate change mitigation strategies

Measurement

Findings

Findings

Findings

Findings

• Dryness causes reallocation of capital and labor
• Dryness lowers productivity and reallocates remaining labor away from agriculture and to manufacturing
• Capital connected areas see reduced
• Labor connected areas see inflows