Climate Change 1

Jeremy Springman

University of Pennsylvania

Global Development: Intermediate Topics in Politics, Policy, and Data

PSCI 3200 - Spring 2025

Logistics

Agenda

Upcoming

  • Wed: Irina
  • Next week: 4/28 class

Today

  1. Climate change overview
  2. Namrata (2023)
  3. O’Brien-Udry (2023)

Intro to Climate Change

Climate Change


Are we doomed?

  • I don’t think so (2024)
  • Wait hold-up… (2025)

Where We Stand

Targets and Trajectories

Biodiversity at 1.5 vs 2 degrees

Losing 50% of geographic range

  • 1.5 degrees: 6% of insects, 8% of plants and 4% of vertebrates lo
  • 2 degrees: 18% of insects, 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates

Wind and Solar

Solar Panels

Electricity

Batteries

Batteries

Electric Vehicles

Cross-National Variation

China’s Growth

Decoupling


Divergence


Namrata (2023)

Climate Adaptation


Disproportionate vulnerability for developing countries

  • Higher mean temperatures
  • Greater impact of temperature on output
  • Long coastlines
  • Lower incomes, smaller safety nets

Three literatures


  • Quantifying vulnerabilities
  • Measuring adaptation
  • Spatial linkages

Climate Adaptation

Climate Adaptation

Research Methods

  • Panel data to find relationship between observed changes and output
  • Project to future changes, assuming everything stays constant
  • Problems:
    • Long-run adaptations
    • Short-run adaptations
    • Mechanisms?

Research Methods


Recent developments

  • Long-run changes (climate vs weather)
  • Focus on expectations
  • Experiments with adaptation

Climate Adaptation

Climate change mitigation strategies

  • Weather insurance
  • Migration
  • Cash transfers
  • Credit
  • New technology
  • Infrastructure
  • Safety nets

O’Brien-Udry (2023)

Albert at al. (2022)

Measurement

  • Reported natural disasters
  • Moisture deficit relative to long-run average
  • Agriculture yields
  • Bank loans
  • Migration and labor

Findings

Findings

Findings

Findings

  • Dryness causes reallocation of capital and labor
  • Dryness lowers productivity and reallocates remaining labor away from agriculture and to manufacturing
  • Capital connected areas see reduced
  • Labor connected areas see inflows

jrspringman.github.io/psci3200-globaldev/